|
|
|
‘Pop’ in the Population
What the ‘mini' baby boom means for the economy
|
Business New Haven
5/1/2000
By: Susan E. Cornell
|
Counting and forecasting the population of children in the U.S. and in Connecticut is key to providing school services, health care and day care. An understanding of population changes also empowers marketers of goods and services to parents and the little end-users themselves. As well, it opens a window not just on our current dependents but also of the future labor force.
A straightforward head count is instructive, although current and projected numbers tell only part of a complex and changing story. The story involves socio-demographic changes, undercounted children, proportional changes within our total population, and an understanding of how these issues impact marketing, education and the vast array of services used by children.
The National Numbers
The 1970s and '80s witnessed a nationwide decline in the under-18 population, followed by a modest upturn. Beginning in 1990, this growth rate increased fairly steadily. Although not nearly comparable to the “baby boom” of 1946-64, the '90s do represent a significant trend followed by a recent “pop” or “boomlet” in births nationwide.
The end of the '90s and the advent of the new century brought new babies rather than Y2K bugs. The steady increase in births has been followed by a mini-boomlet, but if the census projections are on target it looks like this year's parents will be coping with their little packages and taking a hiatus: A slight decline again in growth is expected. Overall, though, it looks like over the next two decades the nation's population of children will increase steadily if not dramatically.
The Connecticut Story
Between 1995 and 2000, the number of children in Connecticut is projected to have declined by roughly 7,000, a nine-percent decrease. The total decrease, however, can be attributed to a large decline in the number of the state's youngest residents, those under age five, of which there are 15,000 fewer than five years ago. Conversely, there are an estimated 8,000 additional residents in the five-to-17-year old group.
Looking ahead, the census figures project that Connecticut will have fewer children in both categories by 2005 (a total decline of 14,000), yet by 2015 we should anticipate an additional 23,000 in the under fives and 15,000 fewer five- to 17-year-olds. These shifts in population by age group are critical to watch from a myriad of angles, from schools to services to purveyors of groceries, toys and entertainment.
The Changing Family
The changes which most impact society include a transformation in the family structure and the related rise in the percentage of births to unmarried women. Ethnic composition and racial diversity as well as declines in the numbers of English-speaking children as a proportion of all children are also vital issues in understanding the transformation in the children's population.
The traditional two-parent household has declined dramatically across ethnic and racial lines. The period between 1980 and 1997 showed a nine-percent decline in the number of children living with both parents. Today, roughly one in four children living with only his or her mother. The differences are greatest comparing children of Hispanic, white and black families in which, respectively, 64, 75 and 35 percent of children live with both parents.
Why is the number of parents living with a child significant? Both economic and human resources available to children are, logically, connected: The greater the number of children in single-parent households, the greater the number with family incomes below the poverty level.
Likewise, the greater the number of children born to unmarried mothers, the greater the number of children likely to live in poverty. Additionally, from a health-services perspective, single-parent offspring face a higher risk of infant mortality and low birth-weight babies.
The past 30 years has been marked by dramatic shifts in the ethnic composition and racial diversity of the U.S. population. This change in the nation's demographic composition is projected to continue in future decades, with the largest increase in numbers projected for children of Latino origin. The projection for 2020 is that one in five children in the U.S. will be Hispanic in origin.
The second largest-percentage gain has been and is anticipated to be Pacific Islander and Asian children, whose percentage of the population doubled between 1980 and 1997.
With an increasingly diverse society, the numbers of non-native English-speaking children will continue to rise. In 1995 there were 2.4 million school-aged children in this category. This is a key issue in marketing goods and services effectively. In the long run, changes in socio-demographics impact the future labor market, since these children will enter the labor force as teens and adults.
Undercounted Children
Census Bureau data is the best available, but the bureau's math is by no means gospel. There is a serious factor in missing or undercounted kids. The problem existed in 1990, and, unfortunately, will be worse in the 2000 count.
An estimated two million children were left unaccounted for by the 1990 census. A preponderance of these children were Hispanic and black. Undercounting does not occur evenly across all age groups; the lion's share of the net undercount was of children. Further, undercounting does not take place evenly across ethnic lines; minorities are undercounted at higher rates.
The problem is expected to be worse for minority children in 2000: Demographers estimate that some 36 percent of children undercounted in the census will be racial or ethnic minorities, compared to 31 percent in the 1990 census.
The implications of undercounting are significant in terms of social and educational services. Services need to be provided for all children, yet the federal and state government agencies can only bestow financial support based on actual head counts. In a nutshell, without accurate tallies, many municipalities receive less than they need to provide services to all residents. Schools suffer as planners cannot plan and overcrowding results. Students are cheated out of the quality they deserve and, in the end, society pays.
Additionally, from a business perspective, it is useful to keep in mind that at least three percent of children will be missed in this census. Three percent may sound small; but in New York City, for example, this would translate to 150 average-sized schools. When business plans are developed or modified, the numbers of forecasted consumers must be adjusted accordingly.
Kids As a Proportion of the Population
Children are part of our “dependent population,” as they require a number of years of investment before becoming productive adults. If society has a high percentage of children, economic stresses. Second, children will (one hopes) become employed adults who will support retirees - us.
During the 1950s, children represented more than a third - about 36 percent - of the entire U.S. population. The percentage peaked in 1960 and, since that time, has declined steadily to 26 percent this year. The Census Bureau projects that this will drop to 24 percent by the year 2010 and remain at roughly that level for the following decade.
The remaining component of our “dependent” population - senior citizens - is growing proportionately. In 1950, seniors comprised eight percent of the U.S. population. By 2020, that percentage will have doubled.
So at least one of the variables of analyzing the child population is stabilizing. And, since we see where both ends of the dependent population are headed in terms of population, marketers can develop a keener appreciation for selling to future grandparents for their grandchildren. Society should have increasingly more older shoppers with disposable incomes potentially directed to the other end of the dependent population, their grandchildren.
Children as Consumers
Here are a few key points about marketing to children, courtesy of Marketing to Kids: Full of Surprises by Brad Edmondson:
• U.S. children's income grew by roughly 20 percent annually throughout much of the 1990s.
• Twenty-five percent of U.S. children are bilingual.
• A typical six-year-old shops between two and three times each week.
• A recent “pop” in population has occurred, but is not expected to become a “boom.” Instead, check U.S. Census projections both nationwide and on a state level when forecasting. These figures are easily located on the Internet.
• Annual spending on and by U.S. children is expected to increase to $212 billion in 2001 from $144 billion in 1996.
In sum, calculating the number of children in the U.S. and in Connecticut when determining education needs, services and what and how to sell to this generation is only a small piece of a bigger puzzle. There are numerous moving targets involved in the game - from changes in growth rates for different age groups of children, to shifts in the numbers of children in various racial and ethnic groups. One also must consider “missed” children in the tallies as young residents are underrepresented and not uniformly counted across ethnic and income lines.
Finally, changes in other groups in our society such as a dramatic rise in single mothers and an increase in the percentage of seniors in U.S. society also shape the lives of children and their needs.
|
Go FirstGo PreviousGo
NextGo LastGo
to Index
|
|
