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Brave New World
At New York's gargantuan PC-Expo, the future rears its ugly head
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Business New Haven
7/3/1995
By: John Ludtke
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It's that time of year again. When the weather turns sweltering, it must be PC-Expo time at the Javits Center in New York. A time when the major vendors influence the future of computing and the smaller vendors wrestle for market share. In attempting to keep a finger on the pulse of the industry as it relates to business, I waded into the thick pack of humanity to offer a few glimpses from the show.
Compaq's Vision True, But...
This year's keynote speaker, Eckhard Pfeiffer, is Compaq's president and CEO. Clearly at home on center stage, in an orderly fashion he offered Compaq's vision of the next ten years - a vision that centers around the networked PC being the universal tool. Noting that the installed base of PCs will approach 200 million units this year (double the installed base in 1990), he makes the safe projection that the future holds a world of near-continuous communication on a global level.
In this vision, by the year 1999, the notebook computer and cellular phone will be replaced by a voice-controlled, Walkman-style personal computer. (I'm not sure that I relish the prospect of wearing a headset while strolling the neighborhood.) By the year 2005, continuous voice recognition will allow verbal computing to totally replace the keyboard and mouse.
Meanwhile, the screen image is projected directly onto our retinas by projectors mounted in the frames of our eyeglasses. (Glasses and a headset? Or built into the glasses?) Video communications will be the norm, as will be visual querying of databases, allowing us to notice trends and patterns without sophisticated data analysis. Meanwhile, every time we approach within ten feet of our desk PC, infra-red links will synchronize its data with that acquired on our walk-about PCs.
Communications was the thrust of Pfeiffer's talk. Noting that world-wide nets create global communities, he stated that electronic commerce, health-care delivery and accessible government will be enhanced. “The goal,” he said, “is to make the computer more important than your television.”
Windows, Windows Everywhere
Waterman Associates of San Raphael, Calif. teased the press with their insight into the future of desktop and network operating systems through the end of 1996. Using a base of 180 large-volume buyers (10,000 PC units minimum), their studies document current large-user buying trends.
On the desktop, they predict Windows 3.x will remain planted at the top for at least the next 18 months, with Windows Win95 moving into the number-two position, displacing Windows NT. They predict IBM's OS/2 losing some of its corporate-user market share and the Power PC to move into the picture replacing the Mac just behind UNIX.
In network operating systems, the Waterman folks suggested that Windows NT will move up to capture 23-percent market share, taking five percent from Novell's NetWare and the rest from Banyan Vines and various lesser-used systems.
Communications Says
It All
With no major platform changes and no killer apps, PC-Expo held no big surprises, just fine-tuning and improvement. Novell is touting the Universal In-Box, a single collection point for e-mail, faxes and voicemail - no more opening multiple applications to chase down communications. Also, its Telephony application now supports PC boards that replace a PBX, with each board handling three trunk lines and numerous stations.
NetManage, the fastest-growing technology firm, is shipping upgrades to its prime applications, ECCO and Chameleon. ECCO, an outstanding information organization tool that is especially popular with attorneys, boasts an improved interface and Internet access. Chameleon, a full-featured TCP/IP Internet application, now supports a full 128 kbps ISDN connection. Zyxel is shipping an ISDN modem, complete with an NT1, for under $750. (Now if only ISDN service prices become affordable.) O'Reilly Associates' WebSite, a World Wide Web server application, is out for Windows NT and ready for Win95.
CD-R, Scan and Touch
Sony has a new line of CD-ROM writers priced at $2,000 that boast both CD-R and audio's “Red Book” standards. Microtek will begin shipping its new PageWiz scanner in August. It scans two to four pages per minute and retails for a bargain $199. Cirque's $89 Glidepoint is a slick, flat pad that moves the cursor with the lightest touch of a fingertip. A double-tap or hold is the same as using the left mouse button. If your forearms ache, add this to your arsenal of differing pointing devices to cycle through.
Home Office Help
If you work from home, you may find the Home Office Association of America interesting at $35 per year. Besides offering discounted relationships on CNA insurance, UPS delivery, phone service and Kinko copies, the group lobbies for home-based office legislation, dispenses advice to home office operators facing restrictive zoning and even offers Internet access. New members get a video called Surfin' the Net, Netcom software and a month's free Internet access. Ask for information at 800-809-4622 or HOAA@aol.com or http://www.
hoaa.com. BNH
John Ludtke is a Novell Certified NetWare Engineer and the owner of Regency Network Services and AirCastle Multimedia Production. He may be reached at Internet jludtke@ibm.net, CompuServe e-mail #74076,3556 or at 203-882-8890.
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