|
|
|
The Economy by the Numbers
Bank barometer says state's economy still growing
|
Business New Haven
8/6/2001
By: BNH
|
Think happy thoughts.
So says People's Bank, whose “business barometer” for the second quarter posted its highest-ever level, up 1.1 percent from the same period a year ago. The index is based on job growth, real disposable income and manufacturing production.
The index, according to People's chief economist Todd P. Martin, “is clearly showing that Connecticut economy continues to moderate, but it also clearly shows that the state is not in a recession.”
That's the good news. The flip side, says Martin, “Based on this new data, however, I can envision sliding into a recession, though I'm still optimistic that we'll avoid one.
Of the barometer's three components, real disposable income grew 1.3 percent from June 2000 to June 2001, while manufacturing production was up 1.5 percent over the same period.
And although non-manufacturing employment declined by 400 jobs during the month of June, it remains at record levels and is up one percent over a year ago.
An area of continuing concern, Martin says, are unemployment statistics. Connecticut's unemployment rate hit 2.5 percent in June, up from 2.3 percent the month before and much higher than the record low of 1.9 percent recorded during the first calendar quarter of 2001. First time jobless claims are up more than 40 percent over a year ago, although they declined somewhat from May to June of the year. Total employment statewide declined by 1,100 during June.
Martin adds, however, that with the national unemployment rate at 4.5 percent, Connecticut's labor markets remain relatively tight.
“If the job figures continue to soften, or if the stock markets take another significant hit, consumer confidence will suffer,” Martin says. “If the non-farm employment figures stabilize, then I think consumer confidence will also stabilize and we'll be okay. If they don't, then the odds point to recession.”
|
Go FirstGo PreviousGo
NextGo LastGo
to Index
|
|
