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Employment Forecast: Cautiously Optimistic

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WETHERSFIELD-Cautious optimism perhaps best describes the outlook of state officials as Dept. of Labor employment statistics for April are released. The numbers show a fourth consecutive monthly increase in nonfarm jobs, greater average employee earnings over the previous month, and a lower unemployment rate in key labor market areas. However, while a small picture - a New Haven LMA drop in unemployment from 9.3 percent in March to 8.6 percent in April, for example - may be the basis of optimistic forecasts, a bigger picture-New Haven LMA's April 2009 unemployment rate of 7.8, for example-indicates that caution must be part of any long-term perspective.

Referring to the overall job growth in 2010 and a drop in the statewide unemployment rate from 9.3 percent in March to 8.5 in April, Gov. M. Jodi Rell said in a DOL release, "Hopefully this positive trend will continue, bringing more jobs to our state and more financial security to families who have struggled through this recession." However, Labor Statistics Supervisor Salvatore DiPillo stated, "Despite such promising indicators, it appears we have a way to go before healthy job growth gets underway." He noted a shaky global financial system, high numbers of housing foreclosures and an unemployment rate that is higher than this time last year among challenges affecting economic recovery.

April's job growth gave the state a total of 8,900 new jobs since December 2009, according to the DOL. The largest gain was in the professional and business sector, which added 5,100 jobs. The education and health services sector experienced the greatest drop, losing 3,600 jobs in April. The average weekly earnings for private industry employees rose from $928.12 in March to $946.05 in April. This is $31.10 more than in April 2009. The national unemployment rate for April was 9.5 percent.
 

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